Mapping Urban Climate Change Threats to Cities
Part of the Resilient Development project
More data is needed on how many people have been displaced within their own countries or across borders due to climate change, or on how climate-related migration will accelerate over the coming decades. One large barrier to better understanding of climate migration is that it can be difficult to isolate climate change from environmental variability and events that do result in human mobility regardless of human induced climate change. Climate change is often referred to as a threat multiplier of migration, that is, a factor that compounds other complex factors that motivate temporary or permanent movement of peoples from their communities of origin.
Regardless of the many uncertainties in studying climate adaptation and migration, we know that the impact of both climate change and migration is highly region-specific, and cities in developing countries face a great risk. Many cities in poor countries will find it difficult to adapt to increased migration. This manifests in the difficulty of providing improved housing and transportation infrastructure, social services and employment opportunities, especially given that such cities are already subject to the effects of climate change, environmental degradation, land grabs, and violence. Added to these problems, cities of the global south will likely face additional migration-related conflict over resources.
African cities, both coastal and inland, face climate challenges that exacerbate existing economic and social problems present in the cities (such as management of rapid urbanization, rising populations, expanding informal settlements; adequate water and other service provisions, and a host of governance challenges). Inland cities like Addis Ababa, Ethiopia face climate challenges such as flooding, water shortages, and temperature extremes. Research on the climate risks faced by African cities is extensive, but there are clear gaps. Much of the research looks at coastal cities and focuses on a handful of large cities without clearly identifying the different risks faced by inland cities and smaller coastal ones. Generally speaking, the academic literature on African cities touches upon the exacerbating effects of urbanization but does not dive deeply into the rural-urban migration, climate change, and environmental degradation nexus.
In this research project, we pair climate science risk assessment for specific cities, starting with Addis Ababa, to conduct background research, local surveying, and policy analysis on climate impacts and responses in African cities. Our goal is to unpack the relationships between climate change, environmental degradation, urban climate risk, and community awareness and preparedness. In our work, we will go beyond city wide best practices for resiliency to consider the neighborhood level challenges and opportunities in communities where individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable to climate stressors. In doing so, we hope to offer new insights into the policies that will help policy makers tackle social justice goals while simultaneously addressing climate shocks.
Our comparative city analysis will:
Provide local and community context to climate risk analysis conducted by our partner Woodwell Climate Research Center
Assess the extent to which human security issues such as urban design and migration into these areas puts strains on services such as water, energy and garbage
Explore whether and how the residents of these areas are addressing these issues or mobilizing around them, and whether civil society protests and mobilization push city governments to act
Explore whether and how city governments are addressing these issues and their plans for the future including engaging the business sector and commercial innovation. This is a woefully understudied part of the climate story at the city level, one with significant policy implications for mitigating negative impacts on political, economic and social well-being.
Field research will be conducted to explore the following:
Are these also areas of high urban poverty or high in-migration?
What kind of impacts have these climate hazards already had on these areas?
Are community members aware of these climate hazards? What, if anything, have they done to address these hazards?
Has in-migration strained services that are already overwhelmed by climate risks or could become overwhelmed by climate risks in the future?
Has the city or national government engaged with the populations in these areas around current and projected long-term hazards?